Revealed Preferences in Voting Behaviour

From RTE: Moriarty Tribunal report - The main points

Data on the Tipp North constituency from ElectionsIreland.org:

General Election 2011		Party	1st Pref Votes	Share	Quota
Michael Lowry Snr		Independent	14,104	29.22%	1.17
Noel J Coonan		Fine Gael	11,425	23.67%	0.95
Alan Kelly		Labour	9,559	19.80%	0.79
General Election 2007
Michael Lowry Snr		Independent	12,919	29.08%	1.16
Noel J Coonan		Fine Gael	7,061	15.89%	0.64
Maire Hoctor		Fianna Fail	7,374	16.60%	0.66
General Election 2002
Michael Lowry Snr		Independent	10,400	25.39%	1.02
Maire Hoctor		Fianna Fail	8,949	21.84%	0.87
Michael Smith		Fianna Fail	8,526	20.81%	0.83
General Election 1997
Michael Lowry Snr		Independent	11,638	29.13%	1.17
Michael O'Kennedy		Fianna Fail	9,895	24.77%	0.99
Michael Smith		Fianna Fail	6,999	17.52%	0.7

Education and interest in politics

It is often claimed in popular debate that education is a "public good". This is generally invoked to justify public funding for education. What "public good" means exactly is usually undefined but there seems to be a general notion that higher levels of education somehow make people better citizens. For this reason economists and political scientists have looked at whether education makes people more likely to vote: it does.
One could also ask does education make people more interested in politics? The graph uses ESS data for Ireland to show a measure of interest in politics by education level completed. There is a correlation with those who have completed tertiary education being significantly more interested. Whether this is a causal link, of course, is a harder question.

Vote

Sorry for the long hiatus. Life and work have taken over in the past several weeks and it's been hard to find time to put pen to paper put fingers to keypad.

Today is Election Day. And I am not hopeful for America.

I am fearful for our democracy and our unraveling social fabric. America's dark underbelly is exposed this election year. Fear, bigotry, and lack of empathy are rampant -- and constitute the entirety of some candidates' platforms and rationales for running for public office.

I think we should be represented by the best among our ranks, not the worst. I think we should look to leaders willing to offer solutions, not just cast aspersions and look for scapegoats ... whether the President who inherited the worst economy since the Great Depression, immigrants who are trying to do the best they can for the families, or those of Muslim faith who all are branded with the terrorist label.

Sadly, this will not be the outcome or result of this election. Some true leaders, statesmen and free thinkers such as Wisconsin U.S. Senator Russ Feingold will likely fall to defeat ... to a plastics manufacturer whose main platform appears to be that the details of policy don't matter. (In its endorsement of Feingold, the right-leaning Madison paper, the Wisconsin State Journal, said "Though likeable and impressive on business issues, Johnson was sketchy on most everything else.") Apparently, obfuscation and distraction will win the day -- and then obstruction can prevail for another two years at which point the right will be aiming for full control of the reins of government by ousting President Obama.

There has been little discussion and no serious consideration of critical issues such as historic levels of income inequality or honest assessments of the expansion of access to and improved consumer protections achieved through the health care legislation. And many of the bomb throwers and Tea Partiers who will be elected don't know and don't care about any of these issues.

What does this election mean for education? At the federal level -- possibly no significant policy action at all in the upcoming Congress; unsuccessful calls for the abolition of the U.S. Department of Education; almost no new money at all, including a third round of Race to the Top (unless it can be pushed through during the upcoming lame duck session), increases in Pell Grants, and other need-based and competitive programs. In the states -- more attacks on teachers and unions; the most thoughtless kind of performance pay proposals disconnected from instruction and teacher development; school vouchers as a wedge issue; growing religiosity in public schools; and more bowing to the altar of local control without an evidential basis and regardless of its effect on outcomes.

There will be a few political bright lights this Election Day, likely in governors races in states such as California, Massachusetts and Vermont. And the most comical, dangerous, embarassing and idiotic candidates for US Senate in states such as Delaware (Christine O'Donnell who isn't a witch don't ya know?) and Nevada (Sharron Angle who is apparently opposed to maternity leave, wants to eliminate the "unconstitutional" US Education Department, but is possibly in favor of "taking Harry Reid out" through an invocation of Second Amendment rights) will likely, hopefully fall short. But pay attention to races in bellwether states such as Colorado, Florida, Illinois and Ohio for signs of what is really going on. It's unlikely to be pretty. Optimistic? Nope. Not me. Not today.

Links of Interest: 29th September

1. President Barack Obama chose Austan Goolsbee to succeed Christina Romer as the head of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers. Here, the Wall Street Journal do a profile of Goolsbee.

2. The Guardian: a "nudge unit" set up by David Cameron in the Cabinet Office is working on how to use behavioural economics and market signals to persuade citizens to behave in a more socially integrated way.

3. The Daily Telegraph on Rory Sutherland's quiet behavioural economics revolution in the advertising industry.

4. Greatest Good: "a unique firm formed with the goal of applying rigorous, cutting-edge data analysis and economic methods to the most salient problems of business and philanthropy." Founding partners include Steven Levitt, Gary Becker, Daniel Kahneman and John List. Affiliates include David Laibson, Emily Oster, Steven Pinker and Richard Thaler.

5. The U.S. National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform. They have a separate mandate to the Congressional Budget Office. "The Commission is charged with identifying policies to improve the fiscal situation in the medium term and to achieve fiscal sustainability over the long run."

6. A fascinating read for any Ph.D. student in Economics, or Ph.D. economist: 'Market Structure in the Production of Economics Ph.D.s'. Frank A. Scott, Jr. and Jeffrey D. Anstine; Southern Economic Journal Vol. 64, No. 1 (Jul., 1997), pp. 307-320.

7. The (Irish) Department of Education and Skills Inventory of Data Sources: "This document contains a matrix of educational data sources which are available from the Department of Education and Science and the agencies under its aegis."

8. University Attendance Scanners: "Northern Arizona University has installed electronic devices that record student attendance in an effort to boost freshmen grades and lift lagging graduation rates. But some students say the monitoring makes them feel less independent." (Southern California Public Radio).

9. "The Production and Deployment of an On-line Video Learning Bank in a Skills Training Environment" - Gerald Cannon, Mary Kelly, Colette Lyng, Mary McGrath; AISHE-J: The All Ireland Journal of Teaching and Learning in Higher Education, Vol 1, No 1 (2009).

10. For economics undergraduates: the Irish Taxation Institute Fantasy Budget Competition. Who needs fantasy football?

Bipartisanship

This post isn't specifically about education, but the lack of political comity in Washington these days will impact the prospects for solidifying education reform and reauthorizing the Elementary and Secondary Education Act (not in 2010, maybe in 2011 or 12, if ever)....

I finished reading the late Senator Ted Kennedy's autobiography, True Compass, on the plane ride back home from California yesterday. It reminded me that Teddy Kennedy was no blind partisan. Sure, he called Republicans on the carpet when they deserved it and campaigned vociferously for fellow Democrats, including President Obama. But he also looked for bipartisan opportunities to pass legislation to strengthen education and further social justice. His work on the Americans with Disabilities Act (1990) and the No Child Left Behind Act (2002) with two different Presidents Bush are testament to his legislative accomplishment and his focus -- especially in the latter part of his career -- on being a policymaker first and a partisan firebrand second. His Senate colleagues, Democrat and Republican, agreed. But he also leaves a legislative legacy in the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Voting Rights Act of 1965, the Family and Medical Leave Act (1993), his work with Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) to expand SCHIP, and his tireless effort which resulted in the Edward M. Kennedy National Service Act of 2009.

Sadly, Kennedy seems to represent a bygone era. There are too few honest brokers left in Congress, willing to reach across the aisle and put in the hard work to build something rather than destroy it. Among the 535 congresspersons and senators, sure there are some legislative diehards. But there aren't enough of them. And they are overshadowed in our modern, media-driven politics by the bomb throwers, would-be (and actual) talk radio hosts, rhetorical empty vessels, obstructionists, partisan extortionists, and finger-to-the-wind moderate extortionists.

Being a hard-working legislator doesn't seem to pay off, at least not politically.

In a quest for ideological purity, the Republican Party currently seems most interested in purging its elected officials who dare even speak to members of the other party, let alone hug them. Just ask Lindsay Graham or Susan Collins -- or Florida Governor and U.S. Senate candidate Charlie Crist. Currently, congressional Republicans are staking their immediate political future on a legislative strategy that consists of little more than just saying 'no' and obstructing nominations and votes in the U.S. Senate. Now, Democrats certainly have been complicit of similar conduct in the past, but far more selectively and less brazenly, I believe the congressional record will attest to. Sadly, this political strategy appears to be working, at least for the moment.

Sarah Palin may be the personal embodiment of this ethos. She chose to quit as Alaska Governor in July 2009. Strangely, in the current political context, while seemingly disingenuous and typically unintelligible, her comments actually make a bizarre kind of sense, despite the fact she might run for President (which would be a title, wouldn't it?)

I’ll work hard.... But I won’t do it from the governor’s desk. I’ve never believed that I nor anyone else needs a title to do this, to make a difference, to help people.

Short of changing Senate rules (an unlikely band-aid, at best), I am not sure that there is an easy solution to changing the current political culture in Washington or in much of America. What really needs to happen is for the American people to stand up and demand that their elected officials do their jobs, legislate, and focus on the nation's problems, dealing honestly with disagreements on the issues. Perhaps the President's proposed health care summit will provide a narrow opportunity to do that. Perhaps more attention need be paid to "Congress behaving badly" stories to shame them into changing their ways.

But we can't rely on summits and exposés to deal with all of the problems and issues that need addressing. The whole political dynamic needs to change, as James Fallows argues in the January/February 2010 Atlantic magazine and in this blog post. Summon the spirit and example of Teddy Kennedy! Some how, some way, the bipartisanship that existed in generations past needs to be reborn. In the end, it is going to come down to the leadership of the folks in power, to build and leverage personal relationships with their colleagues in the other party -- some risking thoughtless and unfair political recriminations in doing so -- to make life better for the American people.

But on this score, sadly, I'm just not all that optimistic.

UPDATE: Neither is Senator Evan Bayh apparently....

Mistake

Mistake