Showing posts with label behavioral economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label behavioral economics. Show all posts

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Behavio(u)ral Economics: What's in a Name?

"What's in a name? That which we call a rose
By any other name would smell as sweet.
"

The above quotation from Shakespeare's Romeo and Juliet is considered by some to indicate Juliet's concern that a name is an artificial and meaningless convention; it is what the name respresents that really matters. Readers of this blog are probably familiar with the distinction between the spelling of behavioural economics in Europe, and behavioral economics in the United States. Previously I wondered whether this distinction really mattered; and now, to some extent, I know.

The source of my knowledge is http://www.culturomics.org/, a website which sifts through the hundreds of billions of words digitised as part of Google Books' effort to create a universal online library. Culturomics was reviewed this week in The Economist:
Anyone can now go to www.culturomics.org, type in a word or expression in one of seven languages (English, French, German, Spanish, Hebrew, Russian, Chinese) and see for himself. Jean-Baptiste Michel, a postdoctoral researcher at Harvard University and the lead author of a related study just published in Science (Quantitative Analysis of Culture Using Millions of Digitized Books)... (says) that twiddling with this new virtual widget is "addictive".
Putting the phrases "behavioural economics", "economic psychology" and "behavioral economics" into Culturomics produces the chart shown below (click on the image to see a bigger version). It can be seen that behavioral (the green line) has always been more popular than behavioural (the blue line). This provides some reason to believe that the American spelling of the discipline's name is quite important. Furthermore, this exercise underscores the importance of choosing key-phrases (or key-words) carefully, as discussed on this blog before here. Finally, it can also be seen that the phrase behavioral economics has overtaken economic psychology in popularity since the year 1998.


Addendum: Of course, it is also worth pointing out that some scholars view the phrase economic psychology to mean the psychological study of issues in the economic domain; and the phrase behavio(u)ral economics to mean the incorporation of psychological insight into economic theory. This is worth considering when interpreting the chart above.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Tesco Metrics: Every Little Bit of Data Helps

Liam linked to an article in the Guardian earlier this week, which was all about Nudge. One comment in the article was that "while shopping, working, or even deciding on who to share their lives with, individuals are less thoughtful and less calculating than modern-day economists... typically assume." This blog-post zones in on shopping, in particular the data-analysis of consumer purchasing behaviour at Tesco. The Guardian article linked above also suggests that "any critic who points out that that's hardly news to the women...(and) the men at Tesco... is spot on." Indeed, Tesco have been conducting interesting micro-level analysis on individual behaviour for many years now.

An informative article on this topic was written by Jenny Davies in the Sunday Times last year. According to Davies, Tesco gets its data from its loyalty clubcard scheme; this was launched 15 years ago with much fanfare - the advert below may jog memories for some readers. Davies also informs us that around this time last year, Tesco was tracking "the shopping habits of 16 million families across Britain, delivering an extraordinary insight into their lives — not only for itself but for companies such as Coca-Cola, NestlĂ© and Unilever, which buy the rights to the data." Readers in the Republic of Ireland might also remember that the Tesco Clubcard was launched there on the 13th. Oct 1997. To date almost 800,000 members have joined in the Republic.



Jenny Davies also tells us that: "Each bill detailing every item in a customer’s shopping basket is logged in a data centre in London Docklands and decoded by Dunnhumby, the marketing firm that is in charge of the scheme. It has to process 100 baskets a second — six million transactions a day. This helps Tesco to decide which products should go on to the shelves at what times, and in early trials it increased sales by as much as 12% in some of the supermarkets." According to the Guardian (in this article), the power of the clubcard was demonstrated in 2009, "when Tesco harnessed the card's database to halt the exodus of shoppers to cheaper retailers because (of) the recession, by doubling the points available to shoppers."

In a blog-post on Tesco data from two years ago, Tony Hirst desribes the early analysis conducted by Dunnhumby, and how this has changed over the last 15 years. A couple of months ago, Dunnhumby (and its recently departed co-founders) were profiled in the Guardian. The article says:
According to company lore, there was a 30-second silence after Humby presented the initial trial's results to the Tesco board, until the then chairman, Lord MacLaurin, declared: "What scares me is that you know more about my customers after three months than I know after 30 years."
One question that readers might have is: what's in it for club-card holders? According to Tony Hirst, a good place to get an answer to this question is the book: Scoring Points: How Tesco Continues to Win Customer Loyalty. Hirst describes the "Clubcard customer contract: more data means better segmentation, means more targeted/personalised services, means better profiling. In short, the more you shop with us, the more benefit you will accrue." According to the Marketing Week magazine, "from the day of its launch in February 1995 the Tesco Clubcard was immediately embraced by customers attracted to the 1% discount off their shopping bills. But its long term success has not been built on discounts alone, rather on the personalisation of the shopping experience."

However, perhaps the last word should go to UCD social psychologist Ken McKenzie, writing on his A Head in Business Blog: "I don’t have a loyalty card, and every time I’m in Boots, Tesco or Dunnes, and they ask if I have one, I feel a slight sense that I should justify why I don’t, as it it’s odd to not have one. And according to rational actor theory in Economics, it is odd to not have a loyalty card and avail of discounts. However, there’s a small but growing body of work in the overlapping area between Psychology and Economics that might explain why (some) people might behave like me."

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Behavioural Economics on RTE Radio 1

Earlier today, behavioural economics featured on the Pat Kenny show (there are some problems with this link) on RTE Radio 1. I don't think the podcast is available yet, but details about the show are available here. I happened to be listening earlier; the application of behavioural economics to consumer behaviour was the main theme. A talk by David Laibson from earlier this week in Brussels (who also spoke in UCD this week) was mentioned, as was a talk by Cass Sunstein.

Saturday, October 2, 2010

Behavioural Economics and Literary Criticism

I had an interesting email from a student constructively criticising me for dismissing the value of studying English literature for understanding behavioural economics. The context is a class where some of the students have joint majors - the value of studying political science, law and philosophy for studying behavioural economics is very obvious and I spoke a bit about the overlap between behavioural economics and these fields. Some of the students have English as their other major and I waved this away without going into potential overlaps. As pointed out by the student to me afterwards, there may be a lot of crossovers that are worth thinking about. He himself pointed to the training that literature students receive in deconstructing arguments and, in particular, linking text back to wider systems of power and social control. The email stimulated me to think further about the crossover between behavioural economics and literature, and below are a few random connections.

- Jon Elster is one of the most widely cited and influential authors in behavioural economics. He is a philosopher and social scientist who, among other things, wrote the epic work on time discounting "Ulysses and the Sirens". Elster has often argued for greater linkage between social sciences and humanities. His works frequently draw from deep literary metaphors and he often uses social science theory as a hermeneutic tool to uncover the meaning of texts and paintings.

- The importance of narrative is increasingly being talked about in economics. In particular, George Akerlof has been arguing that narratives have a causal role in the maintenance of group economic inequality and business cycles. His recent book Identity Economics, co-authored with Rachel Kranton, outlines their ideas in this area.

- Deirdre McCloskey has argued for decades that economics is a rhethorical science, by which she means that economic persuasion relies as much on stories and arguments as it does on statistical evidence. As far as I am aware, nobody has yet attempted to deconstruct the type of metaphors and narratives arising from behavioural economics. As it becomes the mainstream, it will be interesting to see how this will happen. The dominant neoclassical account of human decision making led to the "homo economicus" metaphor and has been critiqued thousands of times. We can think of a few instances where the new less than perfect vision of people has been critiqued e.g. Gigerenzer famously argued that the heuristics and biases literature created a distorted and unfavourable account of human decision making. Rubinstein has viciously attacked what he perceives as the arbitrariness and frivolity of a lot of behavioural economics, particularly neuroeconomics.

- The student mentioned continental philosophers such as Foucalt and Derrida in his email. Continental philosophy tends not to get a great time on this blog (I can picture Kevin rubbing his hands and choosing his weapon as I type). In the comments, Rob has been arguing in various guises that policy applications of behavioural economics are Orwellian ideology in disguise. There is not much in economics textbooks to help us understand the connection between theory, empirics and power structures/ideology etc., Particularly when we get into thorny issues such as social justice and individual freedom then relying solely on statistical evidence hits sharp limits.

- A number of people have looked at how paradigms are formed in economics. Mark Blaug, in particular, stands out as someone who has grappled with big questions underlying the philosophy of science aspects of economics. His book "The Methodology of Economics" is long overdue a spin at our book club. The entry by Daniel Hausman in the Stanford Encyclopedia of Economics deals with many of the philosophical problems at the heart of economics.

- Heterodox Economics is an umbrella terms for a wide range of approaches to economics that exist mostly outside of mainstream Economics departments and journals. This is a very broad church incorporating Marxist and feminist economists, eco-economists and a wide range of other schools of thought. A student-led group developed a movement know as post-autistic economics that heavily criticise mathematical formalism in economics and the atomistic depiction of the individual decision maker. Their journal Real World Economics review publishes many articles that draw from postmodernism and related areas.

- In my own current work, I am struggling with how to integrate qualitative research methodologies into studying well-being and economic decision making. For example, we are currently drafting a paper based on focus group interviews with about 100 people who have been made redundant. There is so much information in these interviews that is interesting and valuable yet it is very difficult for someone trained mostly in econometric methods to capture what is happening and even more difficult to write it up in a way that other economists will care about.

So I guess all of the above areas are points of contact that students from a literature background will have strong insights into.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Links of Interest: 29th September

1. President Barack Obama chose Austan Goolsbee to succeed Christina Romer as the head of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers. Here, the Wall Street Journal do a profile of Goolsbee.

2. The Guardian: a "nudge unit" set up by David Cameron in the Cabinet Office is working on how to use behavioural economics and market signals to persuade citizens to behave in a more socially integrated way.

3. The Daily Telegraph on Rory Sutherland's quiet behavioural economics revolution in the advertising industry.

4. Greatest Good: "a unique firm formed with the goal of applying rigorous, cutting-edge data analysis and economic methods to the most salient problems of business and philanthropy." Founding partners include Steven Levitt, Gary Becker, Daniel Kahneman and John List. Affiliates include David Laibson, Emily Oster, Steven Pinker and Richard Thaler.

5. The U.S. National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform. They have a separate mandate to the Congressional Budget Office. "The Commission is charged with identifying policies to improve the fiscal situation in the medium term and to achieve fiscal sustainability over the long run."

6. A fascinating read for any Ph.D. student in Economics, or Ph.D. economist: 'Market Structure in the Production of Economics Ph.D.s'. Frank A. Scott, Jr. and Jeffrey D. Anstine; Southern Economic Journal Vol. 64, No. 1 (Jul., 1997), pp. 307-320.

7. The (Irish) Department of Education and Skills Inventory of Data Sources: "This document contains a matrix of educational data sources which are available from the Department of Education and Science and the agencies under its aegis."

8. University Attendance Scanners: "Northern Arizona University has installed electronic devices that record student attendance in an effort to boost freshmen grades and lift lagging graduation rates. But some students say the monitoring makes them feel less independent." (Southern California Public Radio).

9. "The Production and Deployment of an On-line Video Learning Bank in a Skills Training Environment" - Gerald Cannon, Mary Kelly, Colette Lyng, Mary McGrath; AISHE-J: The All Ireland Journal of Teaching and Learning in Higher Education, Vol 1, No 1 (2009).

10. For economics undergraduates: the Irish Taxation Institute Fantasy Budget Competition. Who needs fantasy football?